PREDICTION OF CORONAVIRUS WAVES BASED ON THE METHOD OF WEIGHT RECOVERY OF THE COGNITIVE MAP TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR INTERREGIONAL INFLUENCE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31649/1999-9941-2021-52-3-86-94Keywords:
cognitive modeling, cognitive map, coronavirus, wave of new confirmed patients, graph theoryAbstract
This article considers the urgent task of predicting the start, peak and end waves of daily increases in the number of confirmed coronavirus patients in a given region based on a cognitive map that takes into account interregional influence, ie other regions on a given, and vice versa. A method for identifying the weights of such a cognitive map for neighboring regions is proposed. A step-by-step algorithm for applying this method in practice based on real data on coronavirus patients in these regions has been developed, a number of techniques for its implementation have been presented, and its automation in Python has been carried out. An example is given to test the efficiency of the proposed method and algorithm on the example of interaction analysis and prediction of the end date of the coronavirus wave in Ukraine according to Romania based on the restored weights of the second order cognitive map.
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